Disaffiliation Report Shows NC-UMC Congregations Are More Politically and Theologically Mixed After Split

The Duke Religion and Social Change Lab (RaSCL) is a team of researchers and practitioners who use the tools of social science to deepen understanding, spark conversations, and develop resources for the training and formation of faith leaders and their communities.

We also work collaboratively with the Duke Clergy Health Initiative (CHI) to promote clergy well-being across the lifecycle and shifting cultural landscapes. In other words, we serve those who want to serve well.

Formed in 1968, the United Methodist Church is in the midst of a major upheaval. Across Annual Conferences, theologically and politically conservative clergy and congregations are choosing to leave the denomination to pursue ministry in a context more aligned with their beliefs. Longstanding disagreements about the ordination and marriage of people in same-sex relationships are driving these exits. An analysis of survey and administrative data from the North Carolina and Western North Carolina Annual Conferences (the principal administrative divisions in the UMC in the US) shows one-third of churches and one-sixth of
all pastors have left, posing substantial spiritual, relational, and financial challenges for the Conferences. However, as this report documents, the outcome of the disaffiliation process presents some important opportunities.

This report assembles survey data from UMC clergy in North Carolina collected in 2021 with official administrative records from the North Carolina and Western North Carolina Annual Conferences that identify which clergy chose to leave the denomination. Our analysis of these data shows how disaffiliating clergy and congregations differ from remaining clergy and congregations and gives an early view of what the two North Carolina Conferences will look like following the schism. While patterns of disaffiliation likely vary across the US, our findings likely reflect realities across the country.

Our key findings are: 

1. Disaffiliating clergy are much more politically and theologically conservative than remaining clergy.
2. Remaining clergy are typically more politically liberal than their congregants and oversee more theologically divided congregations.
3. While disaffiliating churches are slightly smaller and more rural overall, congregations of all sizes and locations are disaffiliating.
4. Disaffiliating clergy almost exclusively identify as white, are mostly men, and are more likely to be licensed local pastors rather than elders.
5. Compared to disaffiliating clergy, remaining clergy report more symptoms

​Moving forward, our findings paint a challenging picture. Financial strains are likely to be exacerbated with the departure of many congregations, potentially making it difficult for the denomination to effectively support a significant number of clergy who are struggling with depression, anxiety, and burnout. But we also find reason for hope. What was true of the UMC is even more true now: United Methodist churches remain some of the very few institutions in American society where people from different political persuasions can build deep and meaningful relationships with each other. In a polarized and often toxic political climate, UMC congregations are positioned to advance the ministry of Jesus by creating a beloved community that bridges political and theological divides.

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